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By Walker England, Trading Instructor, 25 October 2011 14:16 GMT 
The USD/CAD has been giving us mixed signals throughout 2011. Currently, the Pair is trading near the parity figure, which has been traded through previously in January, and September. Currently daily support is found by connecting the July 26th low at .9405 with the September 16th low at 97.84. Currently price is testing a third touch of support and is awaiting the pair to either bounce or break.
Taking Price in to a 4Hour chart we can see our downtrend established from our October 4th high of 1.0656. Price has been moving steadily downward to today’s low of just under parity, at .9989. If price is to make new lows it must stay under resistance found at 1.0190, denoted by our 78.6%Fib line. A break above this level and a new high on the chart would indicate a validation of our daily support line seen above. 
My preference is to sell the USD/CAD against its 78.6% retracement at the 1.0190 level. Stops should be placed outside of the previous high at 1.0250. Limits should look for 1.0070 or better for a clear 1:2 Risk reward ratio. Secondary targets may search for lower lows under parity. Alternative scenarios include price breaking through resistance and moving on to new highs indicating a bounce off our daily trend line. Additional Resources Support and Resistance Video Trading Breakouts ---Written by Walker England, Trading Instructor To contact Walker, email wengland@fxcm.com.Follow me on Twitter at @WEnglandFX. To be added to Walker’s e-mail distribution list, send an email with the subject line “Distribution List” to wengland@fxcm.com.DailyFX provides forex news on the economic reports and political events that influence the currency market.
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If we could extend the left side of this chart farther, we would see that the USDCHF pair had been in a downtrend from the end of May, 2010 until the beginning of August, 2011…roughly 16 months. It reached its lowest point on August 9, 2011 at .7481…the end of the black arrow. So when did the uptrend begin? Well, technically and in hindsight it began the next day, August 10, the beginning of the blue arrow, when the pair moved off that low and never looked back. Unfortunately, since we cannot tell the future, no one then knew that that was the end of the downtrend. Let’s look at it this way and reverse engineer the process. How did we know the pair was in a downtrend? Well, price was making lower highs and lower lows; price was staying below the 200 SMA and distancing itself from it; and, during that time the USD was weaker than the CHF overall. OK…well if that is what makes a downtrend, it would stand to reason that the opposite of that would constitute an uptrend. Here’s the problem with making a definite call, a cast in stone answer that the uptrend has begun… On the chart above, once we see that price does not take out the lowest low but rather begins to build higher highs to the upside, it may be time for a trader to take note and table the idea of shorting the pair. But, has the trend changed? Maybe. How do we know that the first time the previous low is not taken out and the pair starts to move to the upside that it is not just a pullback against the downtrend? And how do we know that when the pullback stalls that price will not, once again, move to the downside? The answer to both those questions is that we don’t…and therein lies the challenge of calling a trend change. Let’s look at a combination of things… If the pair continues to make higher highs and higher lows and take out levels of prior resistance as it moves up, the pair is building an uptrend. The longer that process continues, the more likely it is that it will be a trend change. (How long is longer? Again, no black and white answer: Aggressive traders will call the trend change earlier and start taking longer positions sooner than will a conservative trader.) As price begins to move closer and closer to the 200 SMA, the closer it gets the more likely that we are looking at a potential trend change. (Once it trades through the 200 SMA and closes above it, that is strong confirmation that the trend has changed.) If the currency in the pair that had been the weaker currency has taken over as the stronger currency in the pair, and that change continues over time, that is pointing to the probability that we are looking at a trend change. So while there is not a lot of certainty in calling a trend change in the short term, the above three items are what I monitor to determine if a trend is continuing, losing momentum and ultimately changing. --- Written by Richard Krivo, Trading Instructor To contact Richard, e-mail rkrivo@fxcm.com. Follow me on Twitter at @RKrivoFX. 
We can see that the pair is in a downtrend on the chart so we know that we ONLY want to find reasons to sell the pair. Knowing that and using the Slow Stochastics indicator on the chart, we will only take selling signals and ignore the signals which tell us to buy the pair. Each of the signals in the black circles would be the selling signals and a short position could have been taken successfully on each one. The buy signals in the red boxes are to be ignored in a downtrend. Keep in mind that a trader can still have a losing trade even when taking a higher probability entry. However, your likelihood of having a successful trade will be enhanced (not guaranteed) by entering trades in the direction of the trend. Remember, the indicator has no concept of trend, it only reflects momentum. As traders, it is up to us to determine the trend and then use our indicator of choice to only take trades in that direction. If you have a live account and want to learn more about Trend Trading or Stochastics, click on the link below. When prompted for a username and password, put in the username and password from your live account. https://plus.dailyfx.com/tnews/videocourse.do?videocourse=&ib=dailyfx&cmp=SFS-70160000000L8OEAA0 Richard Krivo contributes to the Instructor Trading Tips articles. To receive more timely notifications on his reports, email rkrivo@fxcm.com to be added to the distribution list. 
Prezzo prezzo azione prendendo al grafico 4 H possiamo vedere nel commercio CAD/JPY bene sotto sua MVA 200 (media mobile), situato a 81.63. Prezzo è stato consolidando dal suo basso di recente costituzione di 76.78, ma ancora a rompere un nuovo alto. Prezzo si tiene da supporto a breve termine lungo il nostro stoppini candela, trovato a 77,80. Breakout commercianti non possono aspettare pazientemente le probabilità di entrata sotto questo punto in classifica. 
Trading opportunità My preferenza è quello di vendere il CAD/JPY una pausa del supporto sul nostro grafico 4 H. Entrys deve essere posizionato vicino. 77.60. Fermate devono essere posizionate sopra il 15 agosto alle 78.53 alta. Limiti si rivolgerà un nuovo basso a 75.74. Questo creerà un profitto minimo di 186 pips, creazione di un chiaro rapporto rischio/rendimento 1:2. Gli scenari alternativi comprendono continuando a scambi di resistenza di breve termine verso 79.14 sul prezzo. Walker England contribuire agli articoli istruttore Trading suggerimenti. Per ricevere più notifiche tempestive sui suoi rapporti, e-mail wengland@fxcm.com per essere aggiunto alla lista di distribuzione.
Il numero approssimativo di semi in ogni mossa al ribasso, in direzione di tendenza, è mostrato in verde. Il numero approssimativo di semi in ogni mossa al rialzo, contro la tendenza, è evidenziato in rosso. Mentre sicuramente possiamo vedere che può essere fatta pips trading tendenza contatore, 4070 in questo esempio, c'è una differenza significativa del numero di punti guadagnati dal commerciante che ha preso solo mestieri nella direzione del trend. Basato su questo grafico, trading con la tendenza in questo esempio avrebbe intero 3685 più pips, circa il 47% in più, di un commerciante che ha preso solo contatore tendenza mestieri. Richard Krivo contribuire agli articoli istruttore Trading suggerimenti. Per ricevere più notifiche tempestive sui suoi rapporti, e-mail rkrivo@fxcm.com per essere aggiunto alla lista di distribuzione.