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Martes, Nobyembre 15, 2011

GBP/JPY Setting Up To Resume 2300 Pip Downtrend

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By Walker England, Trading Instructor , 18 October 2011 13:52 GMT The GBP/JPY is currently one of the clearest trends in Forex. The last leg of the down move began on April 8th of this year with a high placed at 140.01. The pair has moved as much as 2,319 pips lower to our low found at 116.82 on August 22nd. As price bounced off daily resistance yesterday at 122.50 we will look for our trend to continue and lower lows to be established.

Fundamentally, the JPY still contends to be the safe haven currency of choice. The worse the global economy gets, conversely the yen will gain strength. When paired with a weak currency such as the GBP we are looking for our strong trend to continue. Retail Sales for the UK is on the economic calendar for tomorrow and will give us further insight into the strength of the GBP/JPY move.

GPB.JPY_Setting_up_to_Resume_2300_Pip_Downtrend_body_Picture_1.png, GBP/JPY Setting Up To Resume 2300 Pip Downtrend Taking price into a 4Hour chart we can see our temporary reversal concluding. Price tested resistance on October 17th with a high of 122.65. The GBP/JPY has since broken out from its trend line support at 120.80. Breakout traders may await confirmation of lower lows and look to enter the GBP/JPY under the next line of support at 120.32 established from the October 13th low.

GPB.JPY_Setting_up_to_Resume_2300_Pip_Downtrend_body_Picture_2.png, GBP/JPY Setting Up To Resume 2300 Pip Downtrend My preference is to sell the GBP/JPY currency pair on the creation of new lows. Entrys should be placed under 120.30 Stops should be placed above resistance at 122.50. Limits should look for a minimum of 400 pips near 116.50 on the creation of new lows while establishing a clear 1:2 risk reward ratio.

Alternative scenarios include price retesting resistance prior to a breakout.

Additional Resources

Price Action an Intro

How to Trade Triangles

Setting Trading Expectations from Daily Chart

---Written by Walker England, Trading Instructor

To contact Walker, emailwengland@fxcm.com. Follow me on Twitter at @WEnglandFX.

To be added to Walker’s e-mail distribution list, send an email with the subject line “Distribution List” to wengland@fxcm.com.

DailyFX provides forex news on the economic reports and political events that influence the currency market.
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18 October 2011 13:52 GMT


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EUR/CHF Tests Resistance During 6760 Pip Downtrend

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The EUR/CHF currency has been in a steady decline from its November 2007 high at 1.6827. Since this point price has trended 6760 pips lower to our current low formed on September at 1.0067. The pair is currently in a retracement and has made strides to test our downward sloping trend line pictured below. As the pair moves to long term resistance at 1.2450, trend traders will begin to look for the next leg down for lower lows.

Fundamentally, the CHF remains one of the world’s safe haven currencies of choice. As economic uncertainty has developed around the globe, the Swiss Franc has steadily continued to appreciate. However, in recent months the SNB (Swiss National Bank) has taken steps to stem the strength of their currency. As the tug of war between safe haven asset and central bank intervention occurs, we will on the economic calendar for further fundamental insight.

EUR.CHF_Tests_Resistance_During_6760_Pip_Downtrend_body_Picture_1.png, EUR/CHF Tests Resistance During 6760 Pip Downtrend Taking Price in to a 4Hour chart, we can see the EUR/CHF begin to consolidate begin making lower lows starting from the October 19th high at 1.2466. Price has recently consolidated at 1.2180 near the support of our 200 MVA (Simple Moving Average). Breakout traders may look for lower lows to be created once current support is broken to enter in with the broader trend.

EUR.CHF_Tests_Resistance_During_6760_Pip_Downtrend_body_Picture_2.png, EUR/CHF Tests Resistance During 6760 Pip Downtrend My preference is to sell the EUR/CHF on the creation of new lows outside of the 200 MVA. Orders should be placed under 1.2120 or better. Stops should be placed 150 pips away over 1.2270. Limits should look to first target 1.1820 for a clear 1:2 Risk/ Reward Profile.

Alternative scenarios include price breaking through resistance and moving on to new highs.

Additional Resources

How to Trade Triangles

Trading Breakouts

Identify the Trend

---Written by Walker England, Trading Instructor

To contact Walker, emailwengland@fxcm.com. Follow me on Twitter at @WEnglandFX.

To be added to Walker’s e-mail distribution list, send an email with the subject line “Distribution List” to wengland@fxcm.com.


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