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Sabado, Nobyembre 26, 2011

USD/CAD Tests Multi-Month Daily Trend

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By Walker England, Trading Instructor, 25 October 2011 14:16 GMT The USD/CAD has been giving us mixed signals throughout 2011. Currently, the Pair is trading near the parity figure, which has been traded through previously in January, and September. Currently daily support is found by connecting the July 26th low at .9405 with the September 16th low at 97.84. Currently price is testing a third touch of support and is awaiting the pair to either bounce or break.

Fundamentally, the USD/CAD trades in an inverse correlation with USOIL. As concerns about the global turndown have subsided we have seen the CAD and Oil prices rally. If recovery remains a theme we would look for our daily trend line to break. Conversely, if another bout of economic crisis emerges, this is a potential catalyst for both pairs to bounce off of their established trend lines.

USD.CAD_Tests_Multi_Month_Daily_Trend_body_Picture_1.png, USD/CAD Tests Multi-Month Daily Trend Taking Price in to a 4Hour chart we can see our downtrend established from our October 4th high of 1.0656. Price has been moving steadily downward to today’s low of just under parity, at .9989. If price is to make new lows it must stay under resistance found at 1.0190, denoted by our 78.6%Fib line. A break above this level and a new high on the chart would indicate a validation of our daily support line seen above.

USD.CAD_Tests_Multi_Month_Daily_Trend_body_Picture_2.png, USD/CAD Tests Multi-Month Daily Trend My preference is to sell the USD/CAD against its 78.6% retracement at the 1.0190 level. Stops should be placed outside of the previous high at 1.0250. Limits should look for 1.0070 or better for a clear 1:2 Risk reward ratio. Secondary targets may search for lower lows under parity.

Alternative scenarios include price breaking through resistance and moving on to new highs indicating a bounce off our daily trend line.

Additional Resources

Support and Resistance Video

Trading Breakouts

---Written by Walker England, Trading Instructor To contact Walker, email wengland@fxcm.com.

Follow me on Twitter at @WEnglandFX.

To be added to Walker’s e-mail distribution list, send an email with the subject line “Distribution List” to wengland@fxcm.com.

DailyFX provides forex news on the economic reports and political events that influence the currency market.
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25 October 2011 14:16 GMT


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Martes, Nobyembre 15, 2011

EUR/CHF Tests Resistance During 6760 Pip Downtrend

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The EUR/CHF currency has been in a steady decline from its November 2007 high at 1.6827. Since this point price has trended 6760 pips lower to our current low formed on September at 1.0067. The pair is currently in a retracement and has made strides to test our downward sloping trend line pictured below. As the pair moves to long term resistance at 1.2450, trend traders will begin to look for the next leg down for lower lows.

Fundamentally, the CHF remains one of the world’s safe haven currencies of choice. As economic uncertainty has developed around the globe, the Swiss Franc has steadily continued to appreciate. However, in recent months the SNB (Swiss National Bank) has taken steps to stem the strength of their currency. As the tug of war between safe haven asset and central bank intervention occurs, we will on the economic calendar for further fundamental insight.

EUR.CHF_Tests_Resistance_During_6760_Pip_Downtrend_body_Picture_1.png, EUR/CHF Tests Resistance During 6760 Pip Downtrend Taking Price in to a 4Hour chart, we can see the EUR/CHF begin to consolidate begin making lower lows starting from the October 19th high at 1.2466. Price has recently consolidated at 1.2180 near the support of our 200 MVA (Simple Moving Average). Breakout traders may look for lower lows to be created once current support is broken to enter in with the broader trend.

EUR.CHF_Tests_Resistance_During_6760_Pip_Downtrend_body_Picture_2.png, EUR/CHF Tests Resistance During 6760 Pip Downtrend My preference is to sell the EUR/CHF on the creation of new lows outside of the 200 MVA. Orders should be placed under 1.2120 or better. Stops should be placed 150 pips away over 1.2270. Limits should look to first target 1.1820 for a clear 1:2 Risk/ Reward Profile.

Alternative scenarios include price breaking through resistance and moving on to new highs.

Additional Resources

How to Trade Triangles

Trading Breakouts

Identify the Trend

---Written by Walker England, Trading Instructor

To contact Walker, emailwengland@fxcm.com. Follow me on Twitter at @WEnglandFX.

To be added to Walker’s e-mail distribution list, send an email with the subject line “Distribution List” to wengland@fxcm.com.


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